Both of these approaches have shown aptitude for the kind of reasoning needed by a general artificial intelligence, and as the scientific community comes to the realization that traditional program design is prohibitive for all but the most limited of intelligences, these and other methods will be further studied, implemented, and adopted. Neural networks, evolutionary program development, and other approaches currently being developed truly represent the kind of paradigm shift needed to unite creativity and concept association with logic and order.
The Future
Several scientists have argued against artificial intelligence on both ethical and scientific grounds. Computers could never possess intelligence, such scientists say, and if they did, they could certainly never be conscious. The nature of consciousness and knowledge, as suggested earlier, is truly unknown. Be this as it may, nothing suggests that these traits are specific to organic material, or that they cannot be reproduced in silicon. The moral duties of computer scientists are more complicated. Many say that, even if the capability for artificial intelligence exists, it should not be developed. The risk a race of intelligent computers would pose to humanity is too great to be ignored. It must be noted, however, that ethics, especially on the edges of scientific development, have rarely prevented people from doing things, and as a result of one of those developments, despotic rulers, over whom the general public holds less power than they would over an artificial intelligence, have long had the capability to annihilate life on earth.
Assuming artificial intelligence can be and is developed, what will be the ramifications for society? Several occurrences exist, known as historic singularities, which involve sufficient change and variability to make long-range prediction impossible or very nearly so. The development of language was one such singularity in human history, the discovery of fire another. Others have included the invention of the wheel and the printing press, Columbus’s stumbling across America, the Industrial Revolution, and the invention of computers. Future singularities could include the full realization of human cloning, large-scale expeditions into space, contact with ex-terrestrials, the development of time-travel and light-speed travel, manipulation of consciousness, mass merging of consciousness, and the end of the universe.
Artificial intelligence could be another. Current specialized intelligences and expert systems will continue to improve, making various aspects of life easier, but the existence of a full and general intelligence implies such great variability that the consequences it would have cannot be accurately predicted. An artificial intelligence of this magnitude is still years away and may not appear within the next century. In the meantime, with the growing intelligence of computer applications, the increasing automation of many tasks, the spread and evolution of the Internet, and the increasing ease of global communication, the line between computer and human will grow vague and blurred. To one without significant computer experience, artificial intelligence will seem to be already extant. Humans have created magic countless times throughout history, and wit-bin a few years each new development is taken for granted. The gradual emergence of artificial intelligence will come as no surprise to the general public, and scientists will continue to speculate about the lack of development even as their computers are widely intelligent by the standards of ten years earlier.
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“AltaVista Translation Services.” Internet: . Accessed 2 May 1999. Software developed by AltaVista and Systran.
Artificial Intelligence. Time-Life Books: Alexandria, Virginia, 1986.
Benedict, Michael, ed. Cyberspace: First Steps. The MIT Press: Cambridge, Massachusetts. 1991.
Dreyfus,Hubert. What Computers Still Can’t Do. The MIT Press: Cambridge, Massachusetts. 1993.
Freedman, David. Brain-makers. Simon & Schuster: New York. 1994.
Forsyth, Richard, and Chris Naylor. The Hitch-Hiker’s Guide to Artificial Intelligence. Chapman and Hall / Methuen: London. 1985.
Haugeland, David. Artificial Intelligence: The Very Idea. The MIT Press: Cambridge, Massachusetts. 1985.
Hogan, James. Mind Matters. The Ballantine Publishing Group: New York, 1997.
Johnson, George. Machinery of the Mind. Times Books: New York. 1986
Kurzweil Raymond. The Age of Intelligent Machines. The MIT Press: Cambridge, Massachusetts. 1990
Penrose, Roger. The Emporer’s New Mind. Oxford University Press: Oxford, England. 1989.
Reitman, Edward. Creating Artificial Life: Self-Organization. Windcrest / McGraw-Hill: New York. 1993.