These elections have given the Greens the political legitimacy they have strived for since their formation as the Ecology party in 1973. This legitimacy could prove to be the catalyst towards Westminster electoral success, but only if some manner of electoral reform is implemented. Their new found voice in the Scottish and European parliament should help raise the visibility of the party in Britain and enable them to enjoy the benefits of increased media coverage; an issue which Harper was disappointed with in the run up to the Scottish Parliament elections:
It was also impossible to get the TV companies to give us a platform alongside the four main parties on their debates programmes, or the press to give us anything more than token.
On the assumption that political success breeds more political success, the Green Party has now managed to place their foot on the first rung of the ladder. The Scottish Greens’ future looks fairly bright at the moment. Since the 1999 Scottish Parliament elections, their membership has rose by 50 percent. However, it still only totals 400 so there are signs of encouragement for the Scottish Greens but a long way to go yet.
It would be foolish to suggest that the electoral system is the sole reason why the British Green Party have not done well in national elections but it is the contention of this essay that it is by far the most significant. Basically, the Scottish Parliament and European Elections of 1999 have laid the foundations for the British Greens to develop into a party with real influence, visibility and credibility. However, it must be emphasised that PR would only give the Green Party a foot on the lower rungs of the ladder. However, the future of the party depends on a number of factors, not only on a change to PR. The changes in Scotland are a start but realistically, there needs to be UK-wide electoral reform in order for the Greens to begin to become a political force. It is all fair and well for the Greens to gain legitimacy in Scotland but in terms of UK politics, under FPTP, they should most probably remain as marginal as they are now. The remainder of this essay aims to set out the other conditions under which, coupled with UK-wide electoral reform, could enable the British Greens to grow into an influential political force, as their European counterparts have.
Salience of Environmental Issues.
Rootes suggests that it is contentious to claim that the mere existence of the British Green Party raises the profile of environmental concerns. He claims that the opposite is true; environmental concerns raise the profile of the Green Party. He states:
When, in 1989, they {British Greens] polled 15% of the vote, the party was the beneficiary of the increasing environmental awareness of the public and the government; it was popular anxieties about environmental matters, fuelled in part by government initiatives, development pressures and food safety scares, which fed the stream of environmentalist concern which flowed to the Green Party.
Salience of environmental issues therefore is a factor which seems to have major implications on whether people vote Green or not. This is a view shared by other leading political commentators such as Rudig, Franklin and Bennie:
The environment reached unprecedented levels of political salience in Britain in 1988 and 1989 in the run up to the European Elections, having climbed to the top of the political agenda perhaps for the first time by 1988.
The growing salience of environmental issues was illustrated best by Mrs. Thatcher seemingly overnight metamorphosis into an environmentalist for her third term. Interestingly enough, it appears that while Mrs. Thatcher’s speech to the Royal Society in September 1988 was as a result of growing public environmental awareness, the outcome of directly addressing this issue was even further public environmental awareness. Following the speech, there was a sharp rise in environmental concern; the rise in environmental concern and the rise in the attraction of the Green Party went hand in hand. But the political salience of the environment and the corresponding importance bestowed upon it by citizens is an extremely complex issue. There seems to be no doubt that political salience of the environment played its part in the Greens European Election success in 1989 but it is not a reliable indicator of how many will vote Green. Even when the environment is accorded the utmost significance there are still many other factors which will decided the outcome of elections (for instance the abolition of tuition fees or tax reductions) and this is what makes Green political success to difficult to predict.
While we tentatively acknowledge the influence of political salience in light of its shortcomings, it is imperative to note that there were other factors behind the Greens’ levels of electoral support in 1989. There was also widespread disaffection towards the main political parties in Britain at the time; towards the Conservatives as a result of the poll tax; Labour for changing its policy on nuclear weapons; and the Liberal Democrats for the mess it had made of its merger with the SDP. Consequently, Rootes claims that:
Nothing more clearly demonstrated the extent to which the Greens’ success in 1989 depended upon an extraordinary state of political competition than the contrasting result in 1992.
Briefly, other factors which could affect the Green vote include:
The Economy.
Based on Lowe and Goyder’s 1983 finding that periods of sudden growth of environmental groups occurred “towards the end of periods of sustained economic expansion.” Rudig et al’s research expands on this over the page:
The salience of environmental concern appears to rise only on the basis of actual experience of economic growth and well-being, whereas rising expectations about an economic up-turn are not necessarily associated with a higher salience for environmental issues.
This suggests that if such periods of actual ‘economic growth and well-being’ coincide with national government elections then the potential for more people to vote Green is increased.
Compromise Within the Green Party.
Further studies by Rudig et al seem to show the existence of strong factions within the British Green Party. They claim that it is essential that the differing views on party strategy within the Green Party “could have an adverse effect on the maintenance of the membership and activism base.” Studies show that the left-anarchist position is most strongly associated with activism and membership retention. However, this same position of commitment to “grass roots democracy and alternative life-styles” is a most electorally unpopular position. Basically, the strongest activist and most faithful members tend to have Green opinions which are less than likely to win the party votes. Rudig et al conclude that to alienate these left-anarchists would be to place the future of the Green Party in jeopardy. Yet for the Green Party to “survive as an entity on a left-anarchist, biocentric footing” would be extremely unlikely to lead to a promising electoral future. Therefore, a compromise of positions is necessary to enhance the chances of the Greens arriving at the next level of political legitimacy.
In conclusion, the British Greens would appear to have a bright future in Scotland, where electoral reform has brought them parliamentary representation with the promise of increased levels of credibility and visibility to build on. However, in a UK-wide perspective the future for the Greens is less clear. It will depend heavily on whether Tony Blair decides to implement a PR-based electoral system for Westminster elections.
If reform is implemented, the Greens will have the opportunity to build up influence in the same ways which they should be able to in Scotland under the present system. The increased media coverage, which would come with being a party in parliament, would also help their cause. Once given a foothold, the Greens could possibly start to emulate their German counterparts. But, the level of success they achieve is also dependent on factors discussed above; salience of environmental issues, the state of the economy at ‘first order’ elections; the public feeling towards the other main political parties; and whether or not the Greens can present a united, coherent policy front in light of their internal factions. Yet, the likelihood of these factors all working concurrently in a positive manner for the Greens, as they did in 1989, are slim. Rootes says that the failure of the 1989 success, under “extraordinary conditions of political competition,” to be emulated by the Greens in subsequent elections (until 1999) “serves only to confirm the conclusion that, under the conditions of political competition normal in Britain, the Green Party’s prospects are distinctly uncompromising.”
And sadly, these poor electoral prospects for the Green Party seem destined to remain for the imminent future at least. Labour internal policy review found that opponents of electoral reform outnumbered those in favour by more than five to one. Tony Blair painted a bleak future for the Greens with his statement:
We’ve effectively said that we won’t have it in this Parliament. As to what happens next Parliament, well, there’ll be a debate or discussion in the Labour Party. We’ll make up our minds at a later time on that.
Aides of Mr Blair say that he had “gone cold” on the idea of electoral reform after the failure of Labour to effectively horse-trade with the Liberal Democrats in the Scottish Parliament, and also as a result of the Kosovo war. The Prime Minister was apparently appalled that other leaders who headed coalition government delayed decisive military actions while they won the support of small parties who enjoyed a pivotal role in their administrations.
So it seems as though the immediate future for the Greens is not too bright, except in Scotland. Whether the Scottish Greens can achieve a level of success which spreads to the rest of the UK only time will tell. But until FPTP is replaced by a relatively fairer system, the Greens in Britain will have to remain on the margin.
But it has been argued that the Green movement is the most important innovation in party systems since the 1920s and will be around for the foreseeable future. Indeed, the celebrated article The End of History, by Francis Fukuyama, argues that now that communism has ceased to be, the new challenges to capitalism will come from either Islam or the Green movement. This seems to suggest that the Green movement is here to stay and surely their day will come, in terms of electoral reform, if they stay patient and focussed. They must be sick of waiting but the recent changes to British politics, and their election successes of 1999, show that success in Britain is possible, if not probable. So the Green Party appears to have a future in Britain; it is just that we cannot say for sure just how far in the future it will be when they start to enjoy significant electoral success and political influence.
Green Politics Essay: Bibliography.
Books:
Bennie, L.G., Franklin, M.N., and Rudig, W. Green Dimensions: The Ideology of the British Greens, in Rudig (ed.) (1995) Green Politics Three (Edinburgh University Press)
Brooke, P. The Green Party and the Environment, London: Conservative Research Department, 1989.
Conradt, D. , Kleinfeld, G.R. , Romoser, G.K. , Soe, C. (eds.): Germany s New Politics; Parties and Issues in the 1990s. (1995, Berghahn Books, Providence and Oxford)
Evans, G., Hard Times for the British Green Party, Environmental Politics Vol 2, No. 1, (Summer 1993)
McCormick. J. British Politics and the Environment (1991 London: Earthscan)
Parkin, S. Green Parties: An International Guide (1989, London: Heretic)
Richardson, D and Rootes, C. (Eds.) The development of Green parties in Europe. (1995, Routledge, London and New York.
Rudig, W., and Lowe, P. The Withered Greening of British Politics: A Study of the Ecology Party, Political Studies, Vol. 34, 1986, pp.262-284
Rudig, W., Franklin, M.N., and Bennie, L.G. Green Blues: The Rise and Fall of the British Greens, Strathclyde Papers on Government and Politics, No.95 (1993)
Rudig, W. (ed.), Green Politics Three, (1995 Edinburgh University Press)
Rudig, W. (1990) Explaining Green Party Development; Reflections on a Theoretical Framework. (1990, Strathclyde University)
Rudig, W. (ed.) (1990) Green Politics One. (Edinburgh University Press)
Other
BBC News Website (www.bbc.co.uk)
The Herald Online (www.herald.co.uk)
Election Results website (www.election.demon.co.uk)
www2.europarl.eu.int/election/results/uk_taux.htm
www.alba.org.uk/scotresults.html
The Independent Newspaper