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Risk Management Case Study Essay Research Paper (стр. 3 из 4)

be considered when the safety and soundness of a bank is assessed. An adequate

capital base serves as a safety net for a variety of risks to which an

institution is exposed in the course of its business. Capital absorbs possible

losses, and thus provides a basis for maintaining confidence in a bank. Capital

is also the ultimate determinant of a bank?s lending capacity. A bank?s balance

sheet cannot be expanded beyond the level determined by its capital adequacy

ratio. Consequently, the availability of capital determines the maximum level

of assets.The key purposes

of capital are to provide stability and to absorb any losses, thereby providing

a measure of protection to depositors and other creditors in the event of

liquidation. As such, the capital of a bank should have three important

characteristics: It must be permanent It must not impose mandatory fixed

charges against earnings and It must allow for legal

subordination to the rights of depositors and other creditors. Capital

Adequacy requirements:The minimum

risk-based standard for capital adequacy was set by the Basel Accord at 8

percent of risk-weighted assets, of which the core capital element should be at

least 4 percent. If a bank is also exposed to market risk, the adjustment for

the market risk is added by multiplying the measure of market risk by 12.5 and

adding the resulting figure to the sum of risk-weighted assets compiled for the

credit risk purposes. The capital ratio is then calculated in relation to the

sum of the two, using as numerator only eligible capital. Tier 3 capital is

eligible only if it is used to support the market risk.The quality of a

bank’s assets must also be mentioned in the capital adequacy context. A bank’s

capital ratios can be rendered meaningless or highly misleading if asset

quality is not taken into account. BALANCE SHEET

STRUCTUREThe composition

of a bank’s balance sheet assets and liabilities is one of the key factors that

determine the risk level faced. Growth in the balance sheet and resulting

changes in the relative proportion of assets or liabilities impact the risk

management process. Monitoring key balance sheet components may alert the

analyst to negative trends in relationship between asset growth and capital

retention capability. Balance sheet structure lies at the heart of the asset /

liability management process. Asset / liability management, comprises strategic

planning and implementation and control process that affect the volume, mix,

maturity, interest rate sensivity, quality and liquidity of a bank’s assets and

liabilities. CURRENCY RISK?????? Currency risk

results from changes in exchanges rates between a bank?s domestic currency and

other currencies. It is a risk of volatility due to a mismatch, and may cause a

bank to experience losses as a result of adverse exchange rate movements during

a period in which it has an open on-or off-balance-sheet position, either spot

or forward, in an individual foreign currency. In recent years, a market

environment with freely floating exchange rates has practically become the

global norm. This has opened the doors for speculative trading opportunities

and increased currency risk. The relaxation of exchange controls and the

liberalization of cross-border capital movements have fueled a tremendous in

international financial markets. The volume and growth of global foreign

exchange trading has far exceeded the growth of international trade and capital

flows, and has contributed to greater exchange rate volatility and therefore

currency risk.?Currency risk arises from a mismatch between

the value of assets and that of capital and liabilities denominated in foreign

currency (or vice versa) or because of a mismatch between foreign receivables

and foreign payables that are expressed in domestic currency. Such mismatches

may exist between both principal and interest due. Currency risk is of a

speculative nature and can thereby result in a gain or a loss, depending on the

direction of exchange rate shift and whether a bank is net long or net short in

the foreign currency. For instance, in the case of a net long position in

foreign currency, domestic currency depreciation will result in a net gain for

a bank, while appreciation will produce a loss. Under a net short position,

exchange rates movements will have the opposite effect.In principle,

the fluctuations in the value of domestic currency that create currency risk

result from changes in foreign and domestic interest rates that are, in turn,

brought about by differences in inflation. Fluctuations such as these are

normally motivated by macroeconomic factors and are manifested over relatively

long periods of time, although currency market sentiment can often accelerate

recognition of the trend. Other macroeconomic aspects that affect the domestic

currency value are the volume and direction of a country?s trade and capital

flows. Short-term factors, such as expected or unexpected political events,

changed expectations on the part of market participants, or speculation-based

currency trading, may also give rise to currency changes. All these factors can

affect supply and demand for a currency and therefore the day-to-day movements of

the exchange rate in currency markets. In practical terms, currency risk

comprises the following:Transaction

risk, or the price based impact of exchange rate

changes on foreign receivables and payables.Economic or

business risk related to the impact of exchange

rate changes on a country?s long term or company?s competitive position. Such

as, a depreciation of the local currency may cause a decline in imports and

growth of exports.Revaluation

risk or translation risk arises when a bank?s

foreign currency positions are revalued in domestic currency, or when a parent

institution conduct financial reporting or periodic consolidation of financial

statements. ?RISK

MEASUREMENT METHOD VaR (Value at

Risk) The general

approaches to VaR computation have fallen into three classes called parametric,

historical simulation, and Monte Carlo. Parametric VaR is most closely tied to

MPT, as the VaR is expressed as a multiple of the standard deviation of the

portfolio’s return. Historical simulation expresses the distribution of

portfolio returns as a bar chart or histogram of hypothetical returns. Each

hypothetical return is calculated as that which would be earned on today’s

portfolio if a day in the history of market rates and prices were to repeat

itself. The VaR then is read from this histogram. Monte Carlo also expresses

returns as a histogram of hypothetical returns. In this case the hypothetical

returns are obtained by choosing at random from a given distribution of price

and rate changes estimated with historical data. Each of these approaches have

strengths and weaknesses. The parametric

approach has as its principal virtue speed in computation. The quality of the

VaR estimate degrades with portfolios of nonlinear instruments. Departures from

normality in the portfolio return distribution also represent a problem for the

parametric approach. Historical simulation (my personal favorite) is free from

distributional assumptions, but requires the portfolio be revalued once for

every day in the historical sample period. Because the histogram from which the

VaR is estimated is calculated using actual historical market price changes,

the range of portfolio value changes possible is limited. Monte Carlo VaR is

not limited by price changes observed in the sample period, because

revaluations are based on sampling from an estimated distribution of price

changes. Monte Carlo usually involves many more repricings of the portfolio

than historical simulation and is therefore the most expensive and time

consuming approach TURK EXIMBANK?S GUIDE TO RISK EVALUATION STUDY OF

BANKSShort Term

Export Credits, one of the most important facilities of Turk Eximbank, are

extended both directly by The Bank and indirectly using selected Turkish banks

as intermediaries. For indirect lending, Turk Eximbank determines short term

TL, FX and letter of guarantee limits for intermediary banks through a risk

evaluation process of each bank. These banks are responsible for the default

risk of the borrowers. Therefore, selected commercial banks must be financially

sound and deemed to be active in the foreign trade business according to Turk

Eximbank standards. The evaluation

process named as risk evaluation study is explained in the following part of

this guide.This study

covers analyzing the financial structures of banks divided into 6 categories; Large-scale private banks Middle / Small- scale private

banks Foreign banks Investment banks Development banks State-owned banks This

categorization is done regarding ownership structure, scale, activities, and

its growth in the sector.This risk

evaluation study is reviewed quarterly in a year. Besides this, extra reports

are prepared according to the requests from the banks, executive committee and

the important changes about the banks. The quarter analysis includes; Basic Information Guideline (It

should be updated when necessary) Financial Sheet Sum Table (covering the sector

data) Tiering (Risk Group Determination) Executive Summary 1.BASIC

INFORMATION GUIDELINETurk Eximbank

requests the banks ready to work with itself to submit ?the basic information

guideline? which covers following information; General information about the bank Ownership structure Board of directors Directors / top executives The list of group companies, if

the bank belongs to a group The list of subsidiaries, joint

ventures and/or equity participation of the bank This information

guideline is updated with every changes. (Enclosure 1.) 2. FINANCIAL

SHEETBanks are

sending their balance sheets and income statements in every 3 months, in the

same format as they prepare for Turkish Central Bank and Undersecretariat of

Treasury. These data submitted with diskettes and written form are transferred

to the standard format of Turk Eximbank in use of risk evaluation study. The

financial sheet covers percentage changes in financial data of the bank and the

financial ratios, which are calculated automatically according to a computer

program developed by Turk Eximbank, about capital adequacy, asset quality, liquidity

and profitability in addition to summarized balance sheet and income statement.3. SUM TABLE This is the

table that gathers the processed financial data of all banks, which are subject

of the risk evaluation study. These data are automatically taken from financial

sheets of each bank. The table covers financial ratio values of each bank based

on divided group and average, minimum and maximum values of each group, also

the sector, in addition some basic financial highlights as total loans, total export

credits, total deposits, paid-up capital etc. and their percentage changes for

each bank. The table is used as a reference guide while conducting regular risk

evaluation study.4. TIERING

(RISK GROUP DETERMINATION) As noted

earlier, the banks? risk profile is depicted quarterly through a detailed risk

evaluation study of each bank. For each bank category 8 different financial

ratio standards are determined compared with group and sector averages, minimum

and maximum values placed on the sum table.The financial

ratios are divided into 4 categories; Capital Adequacy Asset Quality Liquidity Profitability The standards of

8 ratios could be different for each bank category. For example, the ratio of

share holders? equity / risk bearing asset was applied as minimum 10% for

State-Owned Banks, while it was applied as minimum 15% for Large-Scale Private

Banks in September 2000 period.Banks are rated

and ranged into one of four categories regarding to the criteria they are

violating.There are 4

financial analysis groups indicating the risk levels of the banks. 4th

financial analysis risk group covers banks with maximum risk, whereas 1st

risk group covers banks with minimum risk. The total number of violated

criteria of each bank is important, since; If a bank violates maximum 2

criteria, it is placed in the 1st financial analysis risk

group, If a bank violates maximum 3

criteria, it is placed in the 2nd financial analysis risk

group, If a bank violates maximum 4

criteria, it is placed in the 3rd financial analysis risk

group, If a bank violates more than 4

criteria, it is placed in the 4th financial analysis risk

group. After

determining the financial analysis risk groups of each bank, the violation

criteria?s table is prepared showing violated criteria as minuses.The second step

of the study is that the banks are scrutinized according to the proportion of

export credits financed through the bank?s own sources and average rate of

using Turk Eximbank?s credit line as compared to the sector averages. In other

words, effective use of Turk Eximbank limits by the bank is very important. The

banks? risk groups are altered depending on these two rates and a new risk

group is created called limit allocation group. (For example, the being above

the average rate of export credits is considered a positive factor and upgrades

that specific bank?s ranking)The third step

of the study is that the banks are ranked for final risk group taking into

considerations the following additional criteria; Ownership structure Management quality Whether top management is

frequently changed or not Customer / market segmentation Human resource quality Reputation of the bank in the

market place Interest rate policies FX short position and exchange

rate exposure Importance of export credit

financing among its financing activities, Giving emphasis to technology

investments. Notified credit

line allocations do not create a binding obligation on Turk Eximbank. The bank

can easily slow down or cease credit payments and partially or fully cancel

credit limits, if necessary. When the financial strength of an intermediary

bank becomes questionable, Turk Eximbank may require the bank to establish

collateral with Turk Eximbank in the form of cash deposits and/or Treasury

Bills and Government Bonds.5. EXECUTIVE

SUMMARYExecutive

summary reports is prepared by analysts in every three months for each bank and

covers a summation about changes in the bank?s performance, it?s risk group,

and current position in the sector for the specified quarter.In addition to

that, extra reports are prepared in the case of demands of the banks regarding

increase in their limits, extra-ordinary changes of status or ownership

structure etc. and presented to the top management of Turk Eximbank.Also, analysts of

Risk Assessment Division regularly visit the intermediary commercial banks?

CEO?s to get information on their future strategies and plans, new activities,

loan and interest rate policies, customer portfolio and target customer

segment, etc. After visiting, analysts prepare a meeting report and present to

the top management of the Bank. TURK EXIMBANK?S RISK MANAGEMENT

DEPARTMENT?S DOSSIER HARMONY1) BANK

DOSSIERSAll of the

information about the banks is collected in credit limit dossier separately and

they include the information; Basic information guideline Financial sheet Executive summaries Corresponds with the bank Meeting reports and Press releases about the bank 2) GENERAL

BANKING DOSSIERAll of the

studies done with the banking sector, corresponds and documents are collected

in these documents. They include; Risk group determination studies Limit allocation studies Management decisions Reports and other studies DISCLOSURES

ABOUT THE BANKS? RISK GROUP DETERMINATION RATIOSRisk group

determination studies of the banks? are made with the financial sheets and sum

tables that are prepared quarterly in a year. By using these, banks? capital

adequacy, asset quality, liquidity and profitability ratios are calculated. As

regards with the told banks? groups ratios and banking sector averages are

found in order to determine the risk groups. Bank groups are

state-owned banks, large-scale private banks, middle and small-scale private

banks, foreign banks, investment banks and development banks. Ratios are

determined according to the bank groups? specialties.These ratios are

used for all kinds of bank groups: Net asset / Risky assets Balance sheet excluded risks / Net

assets Follow up debt receivables / Total