Индекс розничных цен является наиболее распространенной в Великобритании мерой инфляции, которая рассчитывается с 1947 года (Индекс CPI начал рассчитываться лишь с 1996 года). Правительство использует индекс RPI для индексации пенсий, социальных выплат, а также выплат по облигациям (gilts), защищенным от инфляции.
RPI чрезвычайно важен для понимания и прогнозирования инфляционной ситуации в Великобритании, так как является определяющим индикатором для подписания договоров по заработной плате. Чем выше темпы роста розничных цен, тем быстрее будет расти заработная плата, что приведет к значительному росту инфляции. Этот индекс будет индикатором инфляционных ожиданий британцев. Банк Англии очень пристально следит за этим индексом.
Являясь одним из основных показателей инфляции, RPI очень важен для рынка, однако однозначно описать его влияние на рынок сложно. Чаще всего в условиях здоровой экономики рост RPI ведет к росту британской валюты и одновременно к негативной динамике на фондовых площадках, так как это в свою очередь вызывает рост процентных ставок в стране и делает инструменты этой страны более доходными и выгодными для приобретения. Однако по классической макроэкономической теории рост инфляции – это чаще всего негатив, поэтому в долгосрочной перспективе это может привести к снижению национальной валюты и к падению фондовых индексов через последующее охлаждение экономики.
Не стоит забывать, что рост инфляции – это в первую очередь рост цен и удешевление национальной валюты. Это в свою очередь ведет к падению потребления. Показатель не слишком изменчив (волатилен) и достаточно хорошо поддается прогнозированию. В условиях ожидания роста или снижении процентных ставок изменение показателя в одну или другую сторону может привести к достаточно сильному изменению валютного курса.
XIV. Speaking:
1. In a small country a disastrous earthquake occurred. It had destroyed the greater part of industrial and agricultural areas. Consider the possible ways of restoring the economy of the country, and what short-term, and long term consequences may take place.
2. Say whether the behavior is rational or not if:
a) a person prefers smoking to going in for sports;
b) a talented actress in the prime of her fame quits everything and becomes a nun;
c) a world tennis-championship winner gives half of his prize for charitable purposes.
3. When analyzing people’s behaviour we use an abstract model of ‘homo economicus’. Give your reasons why it is suitable.
UNIT 6 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS (2)
I. Find the following word-combinations in the texts and translate them into Russian:
a) controversy over the policy; extra revenue; to run the tube and bus services; to organize one’s thinking; picks out the most important elements; in this stark form; directly controls the fare; it might be argued; is completely unresponsive to changes in fares; an economist would initially adopt; we must not view the number of passengers as fixed; other things equal; a bare-bones model; in an effort to simplify
b) examines the relations; is not sufficient to compensate; to capture the average relations; we can infer; commuters abandoned their cars; to forecast revenue raised from; to omit the most important determinants
II. Find in the texts English equivalents for the following:
a) приводить к сокрушительным потерям; вопрос был направлен в суд; построить модель; упрощенная картина реального мира; устанавливать цены; влиять на количество пассажиров; не принимать во внимание; плата за проезд на альтернативных видах транспорта; если цены остаются неизменными; экономист выбрал бы первоначально; плата за проезд важна сама по себе; назвать четко, ясно; стимулировать пассажиров метро; при условии, что погодные условия остаются неизменными весь год; прогнозировать доход; получать от продажи; реальная прибыль; более высокая плата за парковку машин; привести к серьезным ошибкам
b) диаграмма рассеивания; умноженный на; реальный доход; колонка 2 просто воспроизводит колонку 3; степень, до которой мы готовы пренебречь; детерминанты остаются постоянными; мы можем предположить; отказаться от машин в пользу общественного транспорта
III. Say what is meant by:
in the early 80’s there was a controversy over the « Fares fair» policy; influence the number of passengers only through the fare; traveller behavior; we have named explicitly the most important determinants of the demand for tube journeys; it is not sufficient; to quantify each of the effects; writing down a model is a safe way of forcing ourselves to look for all the relevant effects; to pretend that that changes in real fares were the only cause of changes in use; however suggestive the diagrams, all we have discovered is that fares went up and passengers use did not fall sufficiently to make total revenue go down
IV. Listening
1. Listen to the lecture.
2. Do the tasks given in the textbook.
3. Listen to the lecture again, take notes to bе ready to write а summary of it.
V. Match the terms with their definitions:
| 1. equation 2. equality 3. notation 4. to scatter 5. to reproduce | a. a short expression given in the written form; b. spread over a wide area or a long period of time; c. the situation when smth obtain the same advantages; d. to make smth happen in the same way it happened before; e. statement in mathematics that shows that two totals or amount are equal; |
VI. Match the words with their synonyms:
| 1. sensitive 2. capture 3. ignore 4. conclusive 5. determinant | a. apprehend b. neglect c. decisive d. resolving factor e. responsive |
VII. Insert suitable words into the gaps.
predict, model, theory, goal, economic, full detail, to develop, reality, yields. economics, enables, to predict, complex, simplify, describe, gas, useful, prediction, goods, provides
Economists measure and 1)______ the material side of life, but their main 2)______ is to understand how economies operate. In 3)______, as in other fields, understanding is valuable because it 4)______ us to use logic to answer ‘what if’ questions.
For instance, if you understand how a car operates you can 5)______ what will happen to any car if it runs out of gas. To make such a 6)______ you apply basic logic to a simple description or 7)______ of automobile operation. The simpler the model the easier it is to use it to give general answers to ‘what if’ questions but the less 8)______ the predictions it 9)______. Thus, the simplest 10)______ of auto operation would predict only that any car’s engine will stop if it runs out of 11)______, while a more complex model might enable you 12)______ how far a particular car would move, depending on the road and its speed, when the gas ran out.
Real economies are too 13)______ to think about logically in 14)______, there are too many different 15)______, services, firms, workers and consumers to keep track of. In order 16)______ understandable descriptions of reality, we must 17)______ drastically. But it then follows that all economic theories are wrong - since they leave out some aspects of 18)______. Does it 19)______ generally correct answers to questions of interest? Another way to put this is that the predictions of 20)______ models should be consistent with the available evidence.
VIII. Give terms for the following:
1. A sequence of measurements of a variable at different points in time.
2. The price of a commodity relative to the general price level for goods.
3. A simplifying assumption which enables the economist to focus on key economic relationships.
4. A deliberate simplification of reality based on a series of simplifying assumptions from which it may be deduced how people will behave.
5. An index of the prices of goods purchased by a typical household.
6. The percentage change in a variable per period (typically per year).
7. Measurements of an economic variable at a point in time for different individuals or group of individuals.
8. A way of expressing data relative to a given base value.
9. A graphical device to show how two variables are related.
10. Pieces of information relating to economic variables.
IX. Say whether the following statements are true or false. Extend your ideas.
1. Economists often find it more convenient and revealing to plot data on charts as this highlights important stories hidden in the data.
2. The retail price index provides a measure of the cost of living, obtained as the weighted average of different commodity prices.
3. Real wage rates are calculated by adjusting nominal wage rates for changes in the cost of living.
4. Economic models help to explain the scatter and serve to remind us of which other things are being held equal.
5. The process of devising an economic model can’t be conducted independently of the data.
6. The measurement ‘at current prices’ is known as the nominal value.
7. The evaluation of models is often straightforward in economics.
8. The position of a nonlinear relationship can’t be affected by changes in the background ‘other things equal’ factors.
9. Index numbers are frequently used by economists to compare variables measured in similar units.
10. Well-known and widely publicized indices include the retail price index and the index of industrial production.
X. Insert the appropriate prepositions where necessary:
1. Low fares charged by the tube service bring ______(1) extra revenue _______(2) the company.
2. Fare multiplied _____ (3) number of passengers equals _____(4) total fare collection.
3. Other factors can influence ______(5) the number of passengers who prefer to travel by this means of transport.
4. Not all determinants should be taken______(6) account since we consider the model.
5. Raising wages is not sufficient to compensate _____(7) the rocketing inflation rate.
6. Will we abandon cars _____(8) favour ____(9) public transport?
7. Forecasts cannot capture the full detail of the underlying system, so they rely _____ (10) approximate equations.
8. The quality of the measurement instruments should only be checked _______(11) the initial data analysis phase when this is not the focus or research question of the study.
9. Time series analysis comprises ______(12) methods for analysing time series data in order to extract meaningful statistics and other characteristics of the data.
10. Time series data have a natural temporal ordering. This makes time series analysis distinct ______ (13) other common data analysis problems, in which there is no natural ordering of the observations.
11. However, empirical investigations can indicate the advantage of using predictions derived _____ (14) non-linear models, _____(15) those from linear models.
XI. Read the text and choose the correct word or words from A, B, C or D to fill in each gap:
The terms information and knowledge are _____ (1) used for overlapping _____(2). The main difference is in the level of abstracton being considered. Data is the lowest level of abstraction, information is the next level, and finally, knowledge is the highest level among all three. Data on its own carries no meaning. In order for data to become information, it must be _______(3) and take on a meaning. For example, the height of Mt. Everest is generally considered as "data", a book on Mt. Everest geological ____________(4) may be considered as "information", and a report containing practical information on the best way _______ (5) Mt. Everest's peak may be considered as "knowledge".
Information as a concept bears a __________ (6) of meanings, from everyday ________ (7) to technical settings. Generally speaking, the concept of information is closely related to notions of constraint, communication, control, data, form, instruction, knowledge, meaning, mental stimulus, pattern, perception, and representation.
It is people and computers who collect data and _______ (8) patterns on concepts. These patterns are seen as information which can be used to enhance knowledge and can be interpreted as truth, and are authorized as aesthetic and ethical ________ (9) or marks. Events that leave behind perceivable physical or virtual remains can be traced back through data. Marks are no longer considered data once the link between the mark and observation is broken. In other words, when an occurrence leaves __________ (10) marks, those marks attain the status of data.
| 1 | A consequently | B frequently | C occasionally | D persistently |
| 2 | A thoughts | B designs | C concepts | D solutions |
| 3 | A interpreted | B dissembled | C assumed | D concluded |
| 4 | A characteristics | B qualifications | C credentials | D specifications |
| 5 | A to arrive | B to descend | C to come | D to reach |
| 6 | A similarity | B diversity | C commonness | D convergence |
| 7 | A implication | B consumption | C handling | D usage |
| 8 | A impose | B alter | C adapt | D adjust |
| 9 | A decisions | B beliefs | C criteria | D assessments |
| 10 | A suggestive | B diversified | C perceivable | D identical |
XII. Tasks for thought:
1. Consider the following simple economic model, which relates to the demand for chocolate bars:
| Quantity of chocolate bars = f demanded | price of chocolate bars | consumer incomes |
a) Using only words explain this statement.
b) Do you consider this model to be complete or are there other economic variables which you would have included?
2. Devise a simple economic model to analyze the demand for school lunches.