to borrowers and lenders ?
2. Дайте ответы на следующие 1. Is volatility and diversity of financial
вопросы после беглого просмотра markets good for traders ?
текста: 2. Why do more fund managers invest
in a combination of domestic and
emerging-market equities ?
3. Why are financial intermediaries
going to be under increasing
preassure ?
3. Прочитайте следующий текст и найдите ключевые слова и предложения (фрагменты):
A SMOOTHER RIDE, BUT LESS FUN.
To many, the global capital market is a truly wonderful thing. To firms, it offers access to a greatly expanded pool of international capital; to investors, a chance to earn higher returns. And to those in the middle - the dealers and brokers who make these trades happen - the global market, and the frenetic trading activity it generates, seems to promise a handsome living.
As individual financial markets become more closely linked, however, they will increasingly move together. Volatility and diversity are good for traders, whether of currencies or securities. So could closer integration, while bringing huge benefits to borrowers and lenders, hurt the profits of those in the middle - the traders?
Currency traders seem to have the most to fear. Quite apart from any increase in market correlation, some markets could be wiped out altogether, by European economic and monetary union (EMU). Although the world’s heaviest-trading takes place between the dollar and the D-mark, and between the dollar and the yen, eliminating a handful of EMU currencies would still take a huge bite out of the market. Steven Bell, chief economist at Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, has estimated, for several financial centres, the percentage of all foreign-exchange trades that occur between potential EMU currencies - in his phrase, “EMU crosses”. He concludes that, whereas New York and London would be little affected, Paris and Madrid, which derive half of their foreign-exchange turnover from emu crosses, would lose most of their trading.
Moreover, although some exchange rates can still swing wildly - witness the dollar and yen last year - currency fluctuations seem to have been generally weaker in the 1990s than in the 1980s. The heady growth in foreign-exchange turnover of the 1980s seems to have slowed too. As international flows of goods and capital increase, regional business cycles may become more synchronised, dampening exchange-rate movements. Less volatility is not inevitable, for day-to-day fluctuations may still increase; but it should still worry traders.
Many of those who profit from swings in rich-country exchange rates are taking precautions. Consider Reuters, a financial-information company that depends on the foreign-exchange market for a big slice of its revenues. Not only does the firm provide most of the price and news information on which currency traders depend; it also earns juicy commissions from Dealing 2000, a screen-based trading system on which about 40% of the world’s spot foreign-exchange transactions take place. Rosalyn Wilton, managing director of the division that sells Dealing 2000, believes that increased rich-country correlation is a strong reason for the firm to push into emerging markets.
Swings and roundabouts
Although currency traders are aware of the perils ahead, securities dealers have yet to wake up to them, perhaps because it is trickier to gauge how far world stockmarkets arc becoming more correlated. At some times they have seemed closely synchronised - as in October 1987 when most went into a tailspin. But at others they refuse to fly in formation: last year, the French stockmarket found it hard to get airborne, even as New York and London soared.
Many equity strategists believe that national stockmarkets will move closer together. As an example, they point to the experience of the European Union (EU). In a forthcoming study, a group of economists at BARRA International, a consultancy, looked at the correlation among 19 rich-country stockmarkets. After eliminating the effects of swings in the global economy and in individual industries, they found that nine eu stockmarkets have become more correlated since the early 1980s.
When they applied similar analysis to world stockmarkets, they found less evidence of increasing correlation. Yet many believe that world markets will undergo the same experience. One reason is that national economies are becoming more integrated. The main causes of this are increases in international capital flows and falling trade barriers. These factors will make national economies - and hence stock-markets - more dependent on supply and demand in other economies.
A stronger argument still may be that direct barriers to integration are continuing to fall, as capital controls are rolled back and better technology slashes transaction costs. As this happens, argues Robert Merton, a financial economist at Harvard Business School, national markets may be more exposed to world economic trends. This should make equity markets more closely correlated, threatening the profits of those who depend on diversity.
If you ask most equity analysts - even those who believe that more correlated markets lie just over the horizon - what all this might mean for trading profits, you are more than likely to be greeted with an earful of fluff. One analyst who has given it serious thought, however, is Mark Cliffe, an economist at HSBC Markets, a British securities firm. He argues that increasing integration will diminish the gains from diversification among rich-country markets dramatically. As a result, he claims, more fund managers will imitate the strategy of some American funds by “leapfrogging” part of the international diversification process: they will ignore many developed markets altogether, and invest in a combination of domestic and emerging-market equities since these are likely to remain less correlated for longer. This could cut the profits of mid-sized securities firms in America and Europe, which depend on the eagerness of rich-country investors to pile into each other’s markets.
Nor will securities firms in emerging markets automatically benefit. For a start, if rich-country investors come rushing in, it will probably be because barriers, both economic and regulatory, fall. But it is these barriers that have given local firms an advantage in the first place. Integrated global markets would also put local players at a disadvantage for another reason: the kind of information that is valuable would change dramatically, becoming more international and less local.
The big squeeze
Ultimately, even big firms in rich countries may be at risk. This is because the thing that they are promoting, and that is tying stock-markets closer together - bigger flows of portfolio capital - is going to pose a more direct threat to their livelihood. So will computer technology and increased awareness of costs among borrowers.
The main force behind increased portfolio flows is the expanding global reach of fund managers, who are slashing execution costs in several ways, none of them good for traders. Technology and deregulation are uncovering restrictive practices that have protected traders for years. And users of capital are questioning why they should pay bankers and brokers at all, rather than dealing direct with the fund managers. All this means that financial intermediaries are going to be under increasing pressure, from all sides. Some may relish the notion that increased integration means a smoother ride; but they may soon start to yearn for the old rollercoaster.
VOCABULARY
| 1. trade (s) | операции, сделки на бирже |
| 2. volatility | неустойчивость конъюнктуры (например, изменение валютных курсов) |
| 3. diversity | распределение капитала (инвестиций) между разными финансовыми инструментами и другими активами для снижения риска |
| 4. trader | член биржи, непосредственно участвую-щий в ее торгах за свой счет |
| 5. macket correlation | корреляция рынков, взаимосвязь или взаимозависимость рынков |
| 6. foreign-exchange turnover | объем сделок с иностранной валютой на бирже за определенный период времени |
| 7. cross (es) (cross-rate) | кросс-курс(ы) зд. соотношение между двумя валютами определяемое на основании курса этих валют по отношению к третьей валюте |
| 8. trading | торги на бирже |
| 9. currency fluctuations | колебания курсов валют |
| 10. business cycle | экономический цикл |
| 11. swings | зд. колебания валютных курсов |
| 12. screen-based trading system (over-the-counter) | система внебиржевых операций или сделок (по телефону, телексу или с помощью компьютерной сети) |
| 13. sport foreign-exchange transaction (s) | валютная сделка «спот», т.е. с немедлен-ным расчетом (на второй рабочий день после заключения сделки) |
| 14. roundabouts (чаще swings and roundabouts) | непредсказуемые изменения рыночной конъюнктуры |
| 15. securities dealers | дилеры, специализирующиеся на опера-циях с ценными бумагами |
| 16. tailspin | резкое падение; паника (на бирже) |
| 17. equity market (s) | фондовый рынок |
| 18. diversification | см. Diversity |
| 19. fund (s) | зд. 1) инвестиционный(е) фонд(ы); средст-ва, собранные подобными фондами, 2) ценные бумаги, приносящие доход |
| 20. fund manager | управляющий фондом |
| 21. «leapfrogging» | зд. «увертываться», стремление избежать негативных последствий |
| 22. player | игрок на фондовой бирже |
| 23. portfolio capital | портфельный капитал |
| 24. execution costs | зд. расходы, связанные с использованием биржевой сделки или приказа биржевому брокеру |
| 25. financial intermediaries | финансовые посредники (т.е. лица, уполно-моченные на совершение операций за счет клиента) |
4. Переведите отрывок «Swings and roundabouts».
5. Напишите реферат и аннотацию данного текста.
Text B.
1. Прочитайте и переведите следующий текст:
INVESTORS IN SOUTH-EAST ASIAN EQUITIES.
There is nothing like sitting on a fat, unrealised profit to make an investor nervous, and a fat paper profit is precisely what you should have if you put your money into south-east Asian equities at the start of the year and kept it there.
The phenomenon of soaring stock prices has not been confined to the biggest markets in the region. Trading volumes have swollen too.
Investors, who are understandably considering selling their south-east Asian shares to realise profits, are faced with a familiar dilemma: they cannot think of anything they would rather buy, but they fear a regional stock-market crash or at least a sharp correction in the weeks ahead.
Indeed, this week has seen reverses in many of the region’s markets as investors have decided to book some of the profits rollowing the recent strong advances.
Most of the stockbrokers analysing such risks start by looking at the reasons for this extraordinarily robust performance by south-east Asian equities. Some of them are obvious. Except in the Philippines, the region’s economies have shrugged off recessions in the Japanese, US and European markets and are typically growing by 8 per cent a year.
Some of the causes are peculiar to particular markets. In Malaysia, stock market activity has been fuelled by political manoeuvring and the distribution of financial favours. In Singapore, the government has launched a campaign to promote share ownership.
Such special factors, however, are only part of the story. Stock market analysts agree that south-east Asian markets, like equity markets elsewhere, are “liquidity-driven”. In other words they are beneficiaries of the worldwide fall in interest rates which has tempted large sums of money out of bank deposits and into equities.
Previous rallies in south-east Asia have often been prompted by local speculators driving up the price of secondary stocks, with foreign investors tagging along behind saying: “We know this company is fundamentally unsound, but we’re going to buy it anyway because we know local shareramping will increase the value of the shares.”
This time, the situation is different. Foreign investors, particularly US mutual funds increasing their exposure to the economies of south-east Asia, have led the charge, buying blue chip shares.
The new money makes a profound impact. Although the capitalisation of south-east Asian markets is growing fast - and some of them can now absorb the $ lm plus buy orders demanded by big international investors - their small size means that a rush of foreign buying can have a disproportionate effect on share prices and market indices.
Stock market analysts say the principal risk of a sharp fall in the value of south-east Asian stocks will come from abroad. If world interest rates rise, foreign money may try to get out of Asian stocks as quickly as it is now trying to get in; just as demand for relatively illiquid stocks forces prices to rise exceptionally sharply, so selling pressure forces prices sharply down.
A further problem in south-east Asia, with the notable exception of Singapore, is that several markets are poorly regulated. Foreign investors are partly shielded from this by the preponderance of blue chips in their portfolios, and both Thailand and Malaysia have recently established securities commissions in an attempt to improve company disclosure and control insider dealing.
No-one would be surprised if a sharp fall in regional equity values revealed a few companies with difficulties that they were able to hide in a bull market.
Price/earnings ratios are not excessive on south-east Asia markets in comparison with the industrialised world and price levels can be justified by strong corporate earnings growth.
Any fall in Asian stock markets prompted by an outflow of foreign funds is likely to be limited by the fact that Asians are becoming increasingly wealthy and active in thier own markets. Even during the recent surge of foreign buying, foreign investors in the Thai market were accounting for only about a fifth of turnover.
Only a rash investor, however, would rule out the possibility of a sustained sharp downward correction in equity values across the region after such a bull market.
Indeed, the recent Asia’s financial crisis has swept up some of the world’s best managed companies. So no one would fault you if you steered clear of Asia until the ruckus dies down.
VOCABULARY
| 1. unrealized profit | нереализованная прибыль |
| 2. paper profit | см. unrealized profit |
| 3. to realize profit | зд. получить реальную прибыль |
| 4. stock-market crash | кризис на фондовом рынке; резкое падение цен на акции |
| 5. correction | обратное движение цен (обычно снижение) |
| 6. to book profits | зд. реализовать прибыль |
| 7. advances | зд. рост цен на акции |
| 8. to promote share ownership | содействовать расширению числа держателей акций |
| 9. «liquidity-driven» | ориентированый на высоколиквидные инструменты |
| 10. beneficiary | извлекающий прибыль, выгодоприобретатель; зд. быть более привлекательным для инвесторов |
| 11. bank deposit | банковский депозит (вклад) |
| 12. rally (ies) | значительное повышение курсов ценных бумаг |
| 13. secondary stocks (secondaries) | «второстепенные» акции, т.е. акции небольших компаний, инвестиции в которые связаны со значительным риском |
| 14. share-ramping | искусственное взвинчивание цен |
| 15. mutual funds | совместные фонды |
| 16. blue chip | популярные акции крупных и надежных компаний |
| 17. capitalisation | капитализация, т.е. суммарная рыночная стоимость выпушенных акций компаний, а также стоимость всех акций на данной бирже. |
| 18. market indices | биржевые индексы |
| 19. company disclosure | отчетность компаний, предоставление сведений о своей деятельности |
| 20. insider-dealing | незаконные операции с ценными бумагами на основе полученной закрытой («внутренней») информации о деятельности компании-эмитета. |
| 21. bull market | конъюнктура рынка, характеризующаяся ростом котировок. |
| 22. Price/earnings ratio (s) (P/E ratio; PER) | индекс доходности, т.е. отношение рыночной цены акции компании к ее чистой прибыли в расчете на одну акцию |
| 23. corporate earnings | корпоративные доходы |
| 24. ruckus | зд. биржевой кризис, паника |
2. Напишите аннотацию данного текста.